[SMM HRC Daily Review] Will cost disruptions be limited? HRC prices fluctuate at highs

Today, HRC futures rose with fluctuations, with the most-traded contract closing at 3,136, up 0.06% on a daily basis. In terms of supply, the impact from maintenance on hot-rolled coil production this week was 19,600 mt, a decrease of 32,800 mt WoW. Next week, the impact from maintenance on hot-rolled coil production is expected to be 2,800 mt, a decrease of 16,800 mt MoM from this week. The impact from maintenance on hot-rolled coil production has reached its lowest point, further increasing the supply pressure of HRC. In terms of demand, the end-use demand from the manufacturing sector remains relatively resilient, but seasonal decline trends have also emerged. Cost side, there have been widespread rumors of production restrictions on sinter in Tangshan today. According to the SMM survey, production restrictions on sinter in Tangshan steel mills do exist. However, the steel mills themselves have sufficient sinter inventory, which is unlikely to lead to production cuts in blast furnaces. Meanwhile, there is still an expectation of an increase in pig iron production from blast furnaces, and the support from furnace charge may not collapse in the short term. Looking ahead, the fundamental contradictions in the HRC market are still in the accumulation stage, but inventory pressure remains at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. Coupled with moderate cost support, it is expected that the most-traded HRC futures contract will continue to fluctuate at highs in the short term.